National Weather Service Weather Alerts: How Many Is Too Many?

Originally Posted At DanielSchreiber.org

If you’ve ever visited the National Weather Service’s Homepage (weather.gov), you’ve probably noticed a map of the United States with a bunch of colors on it. representing various weather alerts – warnings, advisories, outlooks, and so on.  Occasionally, an amber alert message will show up on there, as will several non-weather related emergency messages.  Here’s the map:

Ever curious what all those colors mean?  And, what happens if there are several alerts in the same location?

The National Weather Service is working on creating a new system which significantly simplifies the way they do business with weather – and other emergency – alerts.
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Right now, there are 122 possible messages (plus a “test” message) that the NWS could disseminate, but only one color could show on the map at a time in one location.

National Weather Service Office in Indianapolis, Indiana

This creates several problems.

First: There are so many alerts, and so many colors, that it’s difficult to distinguish what alerts are in effect simply by looking at the map.  For instance, there are about 25 different alerts with some shade of blue.  MOST of them have something to do with cold weather, but they also include Avalanches, Rip Currents, and Severe Weather, to name a few.

Second: There are so many alike alerts that the average citizen doesn’t understand their minute differences.  For example, Hard Freeze Warnings, Extreme Cold Warnings, Freeze Warnings, Frost Advisory, Freezing Fog, Freezing Spray, Heavy Freezing Spray, and Freezing Rain Advisories, and Winter Weather Warnings.  The only thing that most people will understand from all of this is: Cold.  The National Weather Service has considered combining several of these alerts into one, eliminating the confusion.

Third: So many alerts can lead to citizen complacency.  With 122 possible alerts, there is almost always bound to be some sort of alert in effect nearby.  Hazardous Weather Outlooks and Short-Term Forecasts are common, and these alerts can steal the glory from more severe weather alerts, like Severe Weather Statements, Severe Thunderstorm Watches, and Flash Flood Warnings.  While there is a pecking-order of which color is displayed (for example, a Tornado Warning will display on the map over a Flood Warning), many folks don’t necessarily identify the difference between “Special Weather”, “Severe Weather”. “Hazardous Weather”, “Winter Weather”, and so-on – it’s all just “bad weather”.
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Fourth: Should the Federal Government be reaching into non-severe weather alerts?  This is a loaded, political question.  But, it raises an interesting question.  While I believe that an American citizen is entitled to the knowledge of looming life-threatening weather, how far should the federal government involve itself into local, not-imminently-life-threatening weather alerts?  At what point should state governments take the lead?  Food for thought.
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The NWS has proposed several fixes (to all but my fourth problem, naturally).  They’ve explored the possibility of only displaying four colors on the map: red, yellow, orange, and purple, indicating simply warnings (red), watches (yellow), and advisories (orange), and emergencies (purple).

Proposed 4-Color NWS Hazards Map

Another idea proposed displaying alerts as impacts: Limited, Moderate, High, and Extreme impact.  The user could then click on the map to read more.

Proposed NWS 4-Color Impact Map

Both of these propositions carry significant pros and cons.

For example,  a four-color Hazards Map will not distinguish between a tornado warning and a freeze warning.  Obviously, one is much more deadly than the other, but they will display the same on the map.  A user would have to click on the map to realize this difference.  More commonly, Tornado Warnings often spawn from Severe Thunderstorm Warnings, and often result in Flash Flood Warnings.  Since these are all warnings, they would all appear the same color on the map, and there would be no distinguishable change when each warning was issues and cancelled.

The second proposed map (Impact Map) would eliminate this issue to an extent. For example, a tornado may show “Extreme Impact”, while a Severe Thunderstorm may only be a “High Impact”.  But, this presents another issue: one person’s idea of an “Extreme” and “High” Impact are bound to be different that someone else’s.  For example, a Freeze Warning will likely have limited impact on most people.  But, it may have an extreme impact on a farmer trying to save his crops.  This can be a dangerous option, just like the other above proposal.

​But, four colors may be simpler than 122 colors.
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Latest NWS surveys have been published to solicit feedback on the potential combination of many of these alerts.  For instance, there is really no need for so many different winter weather alerts (over 20).  The general public understands “cold”, “snow”, and “ice”, and realizes littler difference  between the rest.

There are over 20 marine-related alerts as well, which could easily be summed up in likely three or four.  Rough seas are rough seas…and that’s all there is to it.  If the mariner wants more information, he or she can click on the alert to read more.

The same could be said with flooding-related alerts, which currently total about 20 different hazards, easily combined into only a handful.  Flooding is flooding…most people understand that heavy rain causes flooding, and that living in a flood zone could put them more at risk for flooding.  A flood is a flood, no matter which way it happens.  Specifics could be identified in the alert description, for those who are interested in learning more about the threat.

Essentially, the idea would be to narrow the NWS’s alerts down to only the main weather events: Tornadoes, Severe Thunderstorms, Flooding, Severe Winter Weather, Strong Winds, High Seas, Tropical Storms & Hurricanes, and maybe a few others – but that’s it. All the pertinent information could be typed in the text description of the warning itself for interested parties to read.  This stops the clutter, eliminates the confusion, and still provides all the details.
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Meteorologist Dan Schreiber

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Current National Weather Service Hazards Map Colors