Forecast City: Houston, Texas (KHOU - Hobby Airport)
Last Updated: 2250 UTC
January 25th, 2022
Not "officially" affiliated with the National Weather Service, University of Oklahoma, or the WxChallenge.
Use this at your own risk. These are just my notes for the forecast challenge. Feel free to share with your friends and colleagues.
January 25th, 2022
Not "officially" affiliated with the National Weather Service, University of Oklahoma, or the WxChallenge.
Use this at your own risk. These are just my notes for the forecast challenge. Feel free to share with your friends and colleagues.
Climatology For Tomorrow:
Normal High: 65°F | Normal Low: 44°F | Normal Precipitation: 0.12" | Sunrise: 1314 UTC | Sunset: 2354 UTC
Normal High: 65°F | Normal Low: 44°F | Normal Precipitation: 0.12" | Sunrise: 1314 UTC | Sunset: 2354 UTC
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Dan's Forecast Notes (0600Z-0600Z; Winds 00LST-00LST)
Overall benign conditions are expected this coming forecast period. BUFKIT profiles are largely indicating mostly clear skies- perhaps some high cirrus - but at least a dry low-and-mid level. This is to be expected with offshore wind flow.
Temperatures will be cooler than they were this morning, with both the NAM and GFS MOS averaging at 43°F. The 07Z National Blend agrees, and the overnight NWS is showing 44°F. Bias correction on the MOS shows 46°F, but given the offshore setup and dry air, I am more confident in lower lows - similar to the model average/NBS.
Highs are progged at 54°F (average) by the NAM MOS and 58°F (average) by the GFS MOS. 07Z National Blend is showing 57°F. 10-Day MOS Bias correction is showing 59°F. I will probably aim on the higher end - 57-58°F seems safe to me, given dry air and atmospheric subsidence. 59°F may be a bit high, but maybe not. If we get pretty warm today, then there may be a case for this.
I'm not super enthusiastic about the wind speeds tomorrow. They will probably more-or-less match today's. 15 knots or so for a maximum. No precipitation is expected.
Update: I will update my opinion for high temperatures failing to reach quite as high today, and therefore likely not quite as high tomorrow. Recent runs of multiple models seem to point to highs 55-56°F. Likewise, it appears that lows may drop slightly lower than originally prediction - 40-42°F.
Winds and rainfall remain unchanged.
Temperatures will be cooler than they were this morning, with both the NAM and GFS MOS averaging at 43°F. The 07Z National Blend agrees, and the overnight NWS is showing 44°F. Bias correction on the MOS shows 46°F, but given the offshore setup and dry air, I am more confident in lower lows - similar to the model average/NBS.
Highs are progged at 54°F (average) by the NAM MOS and 58°F (average) by the GFS MOS. 07Z National Blend is showing 57°F. 10-Day MOS Bias correction is showing 59°F. I will probably aim on the higher end - 57-58°F seems safe to me, given dry air and atmospheric subsidence. 59°F may be a bit high, but maybe not. If we get pretty warm today, then there may be a case for this.
I'm not super enthusiastic about the wind speeds tomorrow. They will probably more-or-less match today's. 15 knots or so for a maximum. No precipitation is expected.
Update: I will update my opinion for high temperatures failing to reach quite as high today, and therefore likely not quite as high tomorrow. Recent runs of multiple models seem to point to highs 55-56°F. Likewise, it appears that lows may drop slightly lower than originally prediction - 40-42°F.
Winds and rainfall remain unchanged.